Oil closed at $118.58pb today. Down .59pb on the session.
Gold closed at $883.00po. Down $3.10po today.
Dow finished the session at 11,656.07points. Up a total of 40.3 points today.
Tomorrows fundamentals look like this.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Thursday should open lower if the current status of the futures point correctly
(Dow Futures 63 points down @ 1130pmEST)
11700 is a solid resistance point for the Dow to pass. In the next couple days we might either see it pass that point of turn back and head South on bad new in the Financials or higher commodity or oil prices.
South Korea surprisingly raised rates today. As a key trade partner, this will have a negative effect toward the USD.
AIG dissapointed the street by the reporting a $5.36 billion quarterly net loss.
This might make the market wonder what else is out there for other large institution s to show.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Monday, August 4, 2008
FOMC Tuesday, Dollar Heading South Short Term?
Oil was down today to $121.41pb. $3.69pb off the open.
Gold closed down on the session. $907.90po was the closing price. Losing $9.60po today.
Dow was down 42.17 points this afternoon. With the Dow closing at 11,284.15.
The FOMC talk is tomorrow. Our guess is that if they do not raise rates, which I believe is measured at less than a 5% chance currently,the dollar will most likely drop in value. This
The economic calendar for tomorrow is below.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
The commodities took a hard blow today. They were the biggest losers for sure.
Watching the DBA and the JJG for the agricultural pricing outlook in coordination with the fertilizer group and the railroads, you can grab a sneek peak of what might be coming down the pike.
Keep an eye out for Iran or a hurricane to spark a renewed interest in energy.
Don't get caught in a value trap, but as long as the trend is going down, I am going to try to list the largest price losers for the day.
WCI WCI Communities Inc 0.66 Aug 4 Down 0.60 (47.62%)
TRNS TRANSCAT INC 6.5050 Aug 4 Down 2.1950 (25.23%)
LDL Lydall, Inc. 11.81 Aug 4 Down 3.86 (24.63%)
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA, 27.94 Aug 4 Down 8.19 (22.67%)
USATP USA TECHNOLOGIES PFD 9.00 Aug 4 Down 2.50 (21.74%)
MTMC MTM TECHNOLOGIES 2.00 Aug 4 Down 0.50 (20.00%)
CHIC CHARLOTTE RUSSE HL 10.49 Aug 4 Down 2.45 (18.93%)
WGA WELLS GARDNER ELCTS 1.20 Aug 4 Down 0.28 (18.92%)
TUTR PLATO LEARNING INC 2.19 Aug 4 Down 0.50 (18.59%)
LBY Libbey Inc. 8.23 Aug 4 Down 1.86 (18.43%)
NRVN NATURE VISION INC 1.05 Aug 4 Down 0.24 (18.35%)
EDEN EDEN BIOSCIENCE CP 1.30 Aug 4 Down 0.29 (18.24%)
FCAL FIRST CALIFORNIA FIN 6.5450 Aug 4 Down 1.4550 (18.19%)
SBLKW STAR BULK CARRIERS 2.2690 Aug 4 Down 0.5010 (18.09%)
ORS ORSUS XELENT TECHS 1.16 Aug 4 Down 0.25 (17.73%)
WLT Walter Industries Inc 86.52 Aug 4 Down 18.13 (17.32%)
JAG JAGUAR MINING INC 8.13 Aug 4 Down 1.67 (17.04%)
HILL DOT HILL SYS CORP 2.22 Aug 4 Down 0.45 (16.85%)
BUCY BUCYRUS INTL INC 58.25 Aug 4 Down 11.39 (16.36%)
VIAP VIA PHARMACEUTICALS 1.55 Aug 4 Down 0.30 (16.22%)
NBBC NEWBRIDGE BANCORP 7.08 Aug 4 Down 1.36 (16.11%)
ATLO AMES NATL CORP 19.49 Aug 4 Down 3.68 (15.88%)
FBMI FIRSTBANK CORP 9.77 Aug 4 Down 1.84 (15.85%)
USS U.S. Shipping Partners LP 2.24 Aug 4 Down 0.42
FOOD Vaughan Foods, Inc. 1.60 Aug 4 Down 0.30 (15.79%)
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Gold closed down on the session. $907.90po was the closing price. Losing $9.60po today.
Dow was down 42.17 points this afternoon. With the Dow closing at 11,284.15.
The FOMC talk is tomorrow. Our guess is that if they do not raise rates, which I believe is measured at less than a 5% chance currently,the dollar will most likely drop in value. This
The economic calendar for tomorrow is below.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
The commodities took a hard blow today. They were the biggest losers for sure.
Watching the DBA and the JJG for the agricultural pricing outlook in coordination with the fertilizer group and the railroads, you can grab a sneek peak of what might be coming down the pike.
Keep an eye out for Iran or a hurricane to spark a renewed interest in energy.
Don't get caught in a value trap, but as long as the trend is going down, I am going to try to list the largest price losers for the day.
WCI WCI Communities Inc 0.66 Aug 4 Down 0.60 (47.62%)
TRNS TRANSCAT INC 6.5050 Aug 4 Down 2.1950 (25.23%)
LDL Lydall, Inc. 11.81 Aug 4 Down 3.86 (24.63%)
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA, 27.94 Aug 4 Down 8.19 (22.67%)
USATP USA TECHNOLOGIES PFD 9.00 Aug 4 Down 2.50 (21.74%)
MTMC MTM TECHNOLOGIES 2.00 Aug 4 Down 0.50 (20.00%)
CHIC CHARLOTTE RUSSE HL 10.49 Aug 4 Down 2.45 (18.93%)
WGA WELLS GARDNER ELCTS 1.20 Aug 4 Down 0.28 (18.92%)
TUTR PLATO LEARNING INC 2.19 Aug 4 Down 0.50 (18.59%)
LBY Libbey Inc. 8.23 Aug 4 Down 1.86 (18.43%)
NRVN NATURE VISION INC 1.05 Aug 4 Down 0.24 (18.35%)
EDEN EDEN BIOSCIENCE CP 1.30 Aug 4 Down 0.29 (18.24%)
FCAL FIRST CALIFORNIA FIN 6.5450 Aug 4 Down 1.4550 (18.19%)
SBLKW STAR BULK CARRIERS 2.2690 Aug 4 Down 0.5010 (18.09%)
ORS ORSUS XELENT TECHS 1.16 Aug 4 Down 0.25 (17.73%)
WLT Walter Industries Inc 86.52 Aug 4 Down 18.13 (17.32%)
JAG JAGUAR MINING INC 8.13 Aug 4 Down 1.67 (17.04%)
HILL DOT HILL SYS CORP 2.22 Aug 4 Down 0.45 (16.85%)
BUCY BUCYRUS INTL INC 58.25 Aug 4 Down 11.39 (16.36%)
VIAP VIA PHARMACEUTICALS 1.55 Aug 4 Down 0.30 (16.22%)
NBBC NEWBRIDGE BANCORP 7.08 Aug 4 Down 1.36 (16.11%)
ATLO AMES NATL CORP 19.49 Aug 4 Down 3.68 (15.88%)
FBMI FIRSTBANK CORP 9.77 Aug 4 Down 1.84 (15.85%)
USS U.S. Shipping Partners LP 2.24 Aug 4 Down 0.42
FOOD Vaughan Foods, Inc. 1.60 Aug 4 Down 0.30 (15.79%)
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Friday, August 1, 2008
Fridays Sideways.....til Tuesdays FOMC
Oil was up on new Friday to $125.10pb. Up $1.02 for Fridays session.
Gold was down Friday to $917.50po. A drop of $5.20po.
Dow finished at the 11,326.32 level on Friday. Down 51.70 points.
What a day! I can only hope the weekend doesn't move as "sideways" as Friday did.
It looks like things might remain quiet until Tuesday when the FOMC announces "no interest rate move".
Everyone was watching the Oil Market today due to the comment from the Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz while speaking to a Washington audience today. Mofaz stated that Iran was close to a ``major breakthrough'' in its nuclear development effort that poses an ``unacceptable'' danger.
There is a deadline for the Iran Goverment to respond on Saturday. Their response could significantly move the Oil market higher on Monday if the Market feels threatened by their response.
The economic calendar here tells you the numbers that come out on Monday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
This is a great video that offers insight to what the next leg down might look like.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Gold was down Friday to $917.50po. A drop of $5.20po.
Dow finished at the 11,326.32 level on Friday. Down 51.70 points.
What a day! I can only hope the weekend doesn't move as "sideways" as Friday did.
It looks like things might remain quiet until Tuesday when the FOMC announces "no interest rate move".
Everyone was watching the Oil Market today due to the comment from the Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz while speaking to a Washington audience today. Mofaz stated that Iran was close to a ``major breakthrough'' in its nuclear development effort that poses an ``unacceptable'' danger.
There is a deadline for the Iran Goverment to respond on Saturday. Their response could significantly move the Oil market higher on Monday if the Market feels threatened by their response.
The economic calendar here tells you the numbers that come out on Monday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
This is a great video that offers insight to what the next leg down might look like.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fridays Data Dig........
Oil fell today. Down $2.69 to $124.08pb.
Gold rose today to $922.70po. Up $10.40po on the session.
Dow lost ground today to 11,378.02. Down 205.67 points.
As the GDP number and the Jobless Claim numbers failed to impress this morning, the Dow open over 100 points down. By 11:30am it had cut its losses to 65 points down. But in the last hour of trading the Dow lost over 100 points.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
By 10am EST 100% of all economic data will be out tomorrow. With the VIX up over 8% today, to 22.94, you can bet the market might be dancing tomorrow.
Tomorrow is a difficult day, depending on how the Market digest the news.
Due to the fact that tomorrow is Friday and people may be liquidating positions prior to the weekend, I would have to say the economic data better be strong or else face the sell off.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Gold rose today to $922.70po. Up $10.40po on the session.
Dow lost ground today to 11,378.02. Down 205.67 points.
As the GDP number and the Jobless Claim numbers failed to impress this morning, the Dow open over 100 points down. By 11:30am it had cut its losses to 65 points down. But in the last hour of trading the Dow lost over 100 points.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
By 10am EST 100% of all economic data will be out tomorrow. With the VIX up over 8% today, to 22.94, you can bet the market might be dancing tomorrow.
Tomorrow is a difficult day, depending on how the Market digest the news.
Due to the fact that tomorrow is Friday and people may be liquidating positions prior to the weekend, I would have to say the economic data better be strong or else face the sell off.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Back On the Trading Floor! Energy and Fertilizer
Big symbolic day today!
Oil is up $4.58pb today to the $126.77pb level..
Gold is down on the session to $912.30po. Down $14.10po today.
Dow is up 186.13 today.
Once in a blue moon, you see what happened today. And you can bet it won't last for long. By that I mean, you won't see the energy field move up and the Dow move up in coordination.
If I had to pick one, I like Energy over the Dow in the long term. We might see the Dow turn around between 11700 and 12100 and head South.
After hours today we heard about Disney posting a profit of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share, up from $1.18 billion, or 57 cents a share, a year ago. The market was pleased. ESPN was the hidden gem for Disney(DIS)
Starbucks also reported after the close today. SBUX was down 2.1% to $14.67 after hours.
The fertilizers are on the move again also. This ties in with the energy. KOL seems to be working very well and the 55 Calls look like a slam dunk.
Tomorrows data looks like this---->
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
This video is about water generating power.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Oil is up $4.58pb today to the $126.77pb level..
Gold is down on the session to $912.30po. Down $14.10po today.
Dow is up 186.13 today.
Once in a blue moon, you see what happened today. And you can bet it won't last for long. By that I mean, you won't see the energy field move up and the Dow move up in coordination.
If I had to pick one, I like Energy over the Dow in the long term. We might see the Dow turn around between 11700 and 12100 and head South.
After hours today we heard about Disney posting a profit of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share, up from $1.18 billion, or 57 cents a share, a year ago. The market was pleased. ESPN was the hidden gem for Disney(DIS)
Starbucks also reported after the close today. SBUX was down 2.1% to $14.67 after hours.
The fertilizers are on the move again also. This ties in with the energy. KOL seems to be working very well and the 55 Calls look like a slam dunk.
Tomorrows data looks like this---->
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
This video is about water generating power.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
250 Billion Here and There....Starts To Add Up!
Oil was down today to $124.44pb. Down $3.98 on the session.
Gold closed at $922.80. Down $25.70 on Wednesday.
Dow was up to 11,632.38. Up 29.88 points on Wednesday.
Today was one of the darkest days in US Financial history.
The birth of the Credit Crunch has morphed once again. This time it is not the bail out of an investment banking firm. And it is not a "rebate check" that helps to prop up the US Economy, by way of the Plunge Protection Team.
This time it is Part Deux of the SEC Short Sale Insurance Plan.
Our government is giving the financial future of this country away, day by day, and the next generations to come, will pay for their decisions.
Today the Congress voted to authorize a blank check for the Treasury. This is the first time they have ever authorized a blank check for the Treasury for any reason.
The details are in the URL.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-approves-housing-aid-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F207F2B%2DEA8D%2D4A56%2D8196%2DF24EE226C3D3%7D
The Senate is expected to pass this and President Bush has said he would not veto this bill.
Not that it matters, but you have to ask, if this was not an election year, would this buck keep getting passed on. Would we see bail out after bail out?
What if one aspect got paid for up front? And we didn't pass the cost on to the next generation? What if Freddie and Fannie did not exist? What if we lived as Europe, money was not so cheap and easy, and we passed our houses down through generations.
Do you think people might learn to save money, due to the fact it would be harder to come by?
We are still looking for the Market downturn between 11700 and 12100.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold closed at $922.80. Down $25.70 on Wednesday.
Dow was up to 11,632.38. Up 29.88 points on Wednesday.
Today was one of the darkest days in US Financial history.
The birth of the Credit Crunch has morphed once again. This time it is not the bail out of an investment banking firm. And it is not a "rebate check" that helps to prop up the US Economy, by way of the Plunge Protection Team.
This time it is Part Deux of the SEC Short Sale Insurance Plan.
Our government is giving the financial future of this country away, day by day, and the next generations to come, will pay for their decisions.
Today the Congress voted to authorize a blank check for the Treasury. This is the first time they have ever authorized a blank check for the Treasury for any reason.
The details are in the URL.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-approves-housing-aid-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F207F2B%2DEA8D%2D4A56%2D8196%2DF24EE226C3D3%7D
The Senate is expected to pass this and President Bush has said he would not veto this bill.
Not that it matters, but you have to ask, if this was not an election year, would this buck keep getting passed on. Would we see bail out after bail out?
What if one aspect got paid for up front? And we didn't pass the cost on to the next generation? What if Freddie and Fannie did not exist? What if we lived as Europe, money was not so cheap and easy, and we passed our houses down through generations.
Do you think people might learn to save money, due to the fact it would be harder to come by?
We are still looking for the Market downturn between 11700 and 12100.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Wednesday: An Extention of a Strong Tuesday Finish
Above is a 3 month graph of the Dow.
Oil continued its freefall to $127.95pb. Down $3.09pb on the session.
Gold closed at $948.50po. Down $15.20po on the session.
Dow closed at 11,602.50. Up 135.16 points today.
Commodities down, stocks up. The market digested some pretty rough news today. This leads us to believe that 12100 might be the target for the reversal. The momentum on the upside is good, due to earnings and the rally in the financials. Keep an eye on the XLF as an indicator. If it starts to show a rounded top, beware.
The energy stocks such as MEE(coal), CHK(gas), and OXY(oil) are really starting to give up some ground and becoming affordable for the next energy push North.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Monday, July 21, 2008
Rough Tuesday Opening
Oil finished today at $131.04pb. Up $2.16pb on the session.
Gold finished at $963.70po. Up $5.70po today.
Dow closed at 11,467.34. Down 28.99 points.
Today it looked like the Little Red Financial Fire Engine that could, just could not any longer.
It would be very hard for me to believe that the dead cat bounce could only bounce this high. I was truly hoping for a little higher before we cam tumbling down again. If Apple and American Express might have shown decent earnings and or guidance, we might not be facing a difficult open tomorrow. But they did, so we are.
That is not to say that this Bear Market Bull Run is over. I still believe we could go higher then tomorrows opening activity. Be patient. There still might be room on the top to grab a better short position depending on how we close tomorrow.
Oil is on the move though. And that might help to kill the party before we get to 12100 or even 11700. Thanks to Iran and the hurricane Dolly, the "black gold" is starting to head North once again.
While searching for profits...........I found a little bit of CNBC humor. Don't just laugh at corporate earnings, check this video out! Behind the scenes look at CNBC.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold finished at $963.70po. Up $5.70po today.
Dow closed at 11,467.34. Down 28.99 points.
Today it looked like the Little Red Financial Fire Engine that could, just could not any longer.
It would be very hard for me to believe that the dead cat bounce could only bounce this high. I was truly hoping for a little higher before we cam tumbling down again. If Apple and American Express might have shown decent earnings and or guidance, we might not be facing a difficult open tomorrow. But they did, so we are.
That is not to say that this Bear Market Bull Run is over. I still believe we could go higher then tomorrows opening activity. Be patient. There still might be room on the top to grab a better short position depending on how we close tomorrow.
Oil is on the move though. And that might help to kill the party before we get to 12100 or even 11700. Thanks to Iran and the hurricane Dolly, the "black gold" is starting to head North once again.
While searching for profits...........I found a little bit of CNBC humor. Don't just laugh at corporate earnings, check this video out! Behind the scenes look at CNBC.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Friday Opening Down...Looks Like It
Oil closed today at $129.29. Down $5.31 on the session.
Gold closed at $970.70. Up $8.00 on the day.
Dow closed up to 11,446.66. Up today 207.38 points.
After hours today, Merrill, Microsoft, and Google disappointed with earnings and/or guidance.
This should make for a rocky open tomorrow and being Friday, it could make for a break even close by the end of the day.
If earnings do not totally continue to disappoint, we might extend this short term rally to either 11700 or even possibly 12100. Then head back South after hitting these points of resistance.
We might see more of this in this in the coming year. This is people trying to get their money out of Indy Mac Bank.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold closed at $970.70. Up $8.00 on the day.
Dow closed up to 11,446.66. Up today 207.38 points.
After hours today, Merrill, Microsoft, and Google disappointed with earnings and/or guidance.
This should make for a rocky open tomorrow and being Friday, it could make for a break even close by the end of the day.
If earnings do not totally continue to disappoint, we might extend this short term rally to either 11700 or even possibly 12100. Then head back South after hitting these points of resistance.
We might see more of this in this in the coming year. This is people trying to get their money out of Indy Mac Bank.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Thursday Market Open
Wednesdays Close looked like this:
Oil closed down today to $134.60pb. Down a total of $4.14.
Gold closed down today to $962.70pb. Down a total of $16.00.
Dow closed at 11,239.28 today. Up 276.74 points.
Thursdays Market open will probably be to the up side unless fundamentals change overnight in the areas of oil or earnings.
This Short Term Rally might take us to Dow 11400 or 11700, so please don't go too long too fast and feel comfortable.
Keep an eye on the USO and watch the key support levels of 110, 100, and 95. Today it closed below 110 @ 109.25. So if it continues to break, 100 will be the next level to keep any eye on.
Can anyone tell me how the Financials intend to make any money with new legislation pending that will regulate them to fractional earnings? No doubt they will find a way to make earnings happen, but not in the first 1-2 years of coming out of the credit crunch.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Oil closed down today to $134.60pb. Down a total of $4.14.
Gold closed down today to $962.70pb. Down a total of $16.00.
Dow closed at 11,239.28 today. Up 276.74 points.
Thursdays Market open will probably be to the up side unless fundamentals change overnight in the areas of oil or earnings.
This Short Term Rally might take us to Dow 11400 or 11700, so please don't go too long too fast and feel comfortable.
Keep an eye on the USO and watch the key support levels of 110, 100, and 95. Today it closed below 110 @ 109.25. So if it continues to break, 100 will be the next level to keep any eye on.
Can anyone tell me how the Financials intend to make any money with new legislation pending that will regulate them to fractional earnings? No doubt they will find a way to make earnings happen, but not in the first 1-2 years of coming out of the credit crunch.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Friends of the Fed and Hank Paulson(Senate Hearing Video)
Things keep getting better with the "Blank Check" Crowd.
The first thing we hear is....some institutions are not too big to fail.
Now this action says that certain companies can be saved and our gov officials will say who gets saved and who does not.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
The SEC has issued a list of companies that have been identified by the commission.
" Washington, D.C., July 15, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today issued an emergency order to enhance investor protections against "naked" short selling in the securities of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and primary dealers at commercial and investment banks."
This is a 2 hour video of the hearings where Paulson and Bernanke speak out about why the GOV should give them a "Blank Check"
The securities identified in the Commission's order:
Company Ticker Symbol(s)
BNP Paribas Securities Corp. BNPQF or BNPQY
Bank of America Corporation BAC
Barclays PLC BCS
Citigroup Inc. C
Credit Suisse Group CS
Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY
Deutsche Bank Group AG DB
Allianz SE AZ
Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS
Royal Bank ADS RBS
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC and HSI
J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG
Morgan Stanley MS
UBS AG UBS
Freddie Mac FRE
Fannie Mae FNM
This favored situation is costing taxpayers money and should not happen. The market should subsidize the risk that are taken by some of the worlds largest financiers.
Please stop the political crap and let the markets work.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
The first thing we hear is....some institutions are not too big to fail.
Now this action says that certain companies can be saved and our gov officials will say who gets saved and who does not.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
The SEC has issued a list of companies that have been identified by the commission.
" Washington, D.C., July 15, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today issued an emergency order to enhance investor protections against "naked" short selling in the securities of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and primary dealers at commercial and investment banks."
This is a 2 hour video of the hearings where Paulson and Bernanke speak out about why the GOV should give them a "Blank Check"
The securities identified in the Commission's order:
Company Ticker Symbol(s)
BNP Paribas Securities Corp. BNPQF or BNPQY
Bank of America Corporation BAC
Barclays PLC BCS
Citigroup Inc. C
Credit Suisse Group CS
Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY
Deutsche Bank Group AG DB
Allianz SE AZ
Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS
Royal Bank ADS RBS
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC and HSI
J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG
Morgan Stanley MS
UBS AG UBS
Freddie Mac FRE
Fannie Mae FNM
This favored situation is costing taxpayers money and should not happen. The market should subsidize the risk that are taken by some of the worlds largest financiers.
Please stop the political crap and let the markets work.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
CPI, Bernanke, Oil, and Housing Numbers
Oil was down today, closing the day at $138.74. Down $6.44.
Gold was up today to $978.70. Up today $5.00.
Dow was down today to 10,962.54. Down today 92.65.
Lots of big meaningful information out on Wednesday
The Plunge Protection Team probably cannot stop what is going to happen in the next 10 days. The dramatic downward day we will see, and the a dead cat bounce, bear market short term rally, or a short term trend reversal. Whatever you call it, this leg down will come to an end. At that time we will revisit the level of either 11400, 11700, or 12100 we think. If I had to pick one level more than the others, I like 11400 for the top of the next part of the infamous range trade.
Oil showed some weakness today, but with the hurricane season here, Nigeria still under siege with committed rebels, and Israel and Iran in the background, and current levels of demand/supply, oil still has room to move higher in the next 1-3 months.
Gold to me is surprisingly low considering the situation of dollar destructiveness, and the US having to pick a road to walk on when it comes to driving the economy in the ground or keeping rates low and suffering higher commodity prices. 1300-1500 in gold does not seem like a far stretch.
Here is 8 Minutes of Mr.Commodity, Jim Rogers. Brilliant gentleman that lets you know up front what is on his mind.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity !!!
Gold was up today to $978.70. Up today $5.00.
Dow was down today to 10,962.54. Down today 92.65.
Lots of big meaningful information out on Wednesday
The Plunge Protection Team probably cannot stop what is going to happen in the next 10 days. The dramatic downward day we will see, and the a dead cat bounce, bear market short term rally, or a short term trend reversal. Whatever you call it, this leg down will come to an end. At that time we will revisit the level of either 11400, 11700, or 12100 we think. If I had to pick one level more than the others, I like 11400 for the top of the next part of the infamous range trade.
Oil showed some weakness today, but with the hurricane season here, Nigeria still under siege with committed rebels, and Israel and Iran in the background, and current levels of demand/supply, oil still has room to move higher in the next 1-3 months.
Gold to me is surprisingly low considering the situation of dollar destructiveness, and the US having to pick a road to walk on when it comes to driving the economy in the ground or keeping rates low and suffering higher commodity prices. 1300-1500 in gold does not seem like a far stretch.
Here is 8 Minutes of Mr.Commodity, Jim Rogers. Brilliant gentleman that lets you know up front what is on his mind.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity !!!
AB Yesterday, Today Sprint Announces
SK Telecom announced that it might buy Sprint.
M&A is alive and well. The deal is weeks away if it happens.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury is trying to fleece the taxpayer by petitioning for a blank check from the Federal Gov, for the purpose of bailing out Fannie and Freddie "if needed".
"If Needed", come on Paulson, can't you come up with something better than this. It is so sad that someone that has led the one of the best investment banks(Golden Sachs) is forced to present such an unprecedented argument in an unimaginative fashion.
Senator Bunning is the only person that spoke today that made any sense when addressing the overall situation and that Paulson and Bernanke were petitioning for a miracle that should never have to happen.
http://bunning.senate.gov/public/
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
M&A is alive and well. The deal is weeks away if it happens.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury is trying to fleece the taxpayer by petitioning for a blank check from the Federal Gov, for the purpose of bailing out Fannie and Freddie "if needed".
"If Needed", come on Paulson, can't you come up with something better than this. It is so sad that someone that has led the one of the best investment banks(Golden Sachs) is forced to present such an unprecedented argument in an unimaginative fashion.
Senator Bunning is the only person that spoke today that made any sense when addressing the overall situation and that Paulson and Bernanke were petitioning for a miracle that should never have to happen.
http://bunning.senate.gov/public/
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Monday, July 14, 2008
VIX Climbs and Financials Unwind
OIl was up to $145.18 on Monday. Up $0.10.
Gold was up to $981.60. Up $7.90 on Monday.
Dow closed at 11,055.19 on Monday. Down -45.35.
Well as the GSEs now have the full faith of the Fed, we once again pay for this debacle as taxpayers.
Today the Dow broke the technical level of 11100 for a closing level. This is significant and along with poor economic news tomorrow, the Dow will open lower.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold was up to $981.60. Up $7.90 on Monday.
Dow closed at 11,055.19 on Monday. Down -45.35.
Well as the GSEs now have the full faith of the Fed, we once again pay for this debacle as taxpayers.
Today the Dow broke the technical level of 11100 for a closing level. This is significant and along with poor economic news tomorrow, the Dow will open lower.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Pressures, Catalyst and Change
Oil up to $145.08. Up $3.43 on Fridays session.
Gold up to $960.60. Up $18.60 on the day.
Dow down to 11,100.54. Down 128.48 on Friday.
Crude set a new record Friday.
Fannie and Freddie on the brink of being bailed out.
And the biggest indicator, InBev upping the anty to buy AB for 70 a share from 65.
People drink more during poor economic times, is what the data shows us
Next week with certain indicators being released like CPI being released, while the Fed is scrambling to piece its world back together, might not be the best time to be in the equity markets. Cash is King when Rome is burning.
The uncertainty will end soon and the world will be able to watch equities either go up sharply in the short term or continue its retracement to 50% of the the Dow highs of 14100. We expect that Dow could show us 7000 in the next year. But in the short term might bounce to 11700 or 12100.
Here is a video of big oil talking about big oil.
Indy Mac Bank is now managed by the U.S. Regulators BTW.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Gold up to $960.60. Up $18.60 on the day.
Dow down to 11,100.54. Down 128.48 on Friday.
Crude set a new record Friday.
Fannie and Freddie on the brink of being bailed out.
And the biggest indicator, InBev upping the anty to buy AB for 70 a share from 65.
People drink more during poor economic times, is what the data shows us
Next week with certain indicators being released like CPI being released, while the Fed is scrambling to piece its world back together, might not be the best time to be in the equity markets. Cash is King when Rome is burning.
The uncertainty will end soon and the world will be able to watch equities either go up sharply in the short term or continue its retracement to 50% of the the Dow highs of 14100. We expect that Dow could show us 7000 in the next year. But in the short term might bounce to 11700 or 12100.
Here is a video of big oil talking about big oil.
Indy Mac Bank is now managed by the U.S. Regulators BTW.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Dow Down 235 /Regulation or Strangulation?
The rumour is that Pimco is taking money out of Lehman. Could this be the demise of Lehman?
Tuesday the Dow was down over 235. It happened after the Vix went from 23 back to 25.
I would think that with the financials down so low right now, that along with several banks, the failure of another large investment bank is totally possible.
Count on the government making it more difficult for the investment banks to make a profit. Paulson, with his years spent at Goldman, might be the only hope to have our markets maintain some type of risk. On the flipside, and I know it is not his decision, I can only imagine that he is one voice that will be pushing to keep interest rates down as long as possible.
Since the Financials lead the Market, with the demise of Freddie and Fannie,
we are headed lower. This will be the first quarter that US Corporations living with $110 plus cost for a barrel of oil. Keep in mind oil is used in so much more than simply transportation.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Tuesday the Dow was down over 235. It happened after the Vix went from 23 back to 25.
I would think that with the financials down so low right now, that along with several banks, the failure of another large investment bank is totally possible.
Count on the government making it more difficult for the investment banks to make a profit. Paulson, with his years spent at Goldman, might be the only hope to have our markets maintain some type of risk. On the flipside, and I know it is not his decision, I can only imagine that he is one voice that will be pushing to keep interest rates down as long as possible.
Since the Financials lead the Market, with the demise of Freddie and Fannie,
we are headed lower. This will be the first quarter that US Corporations living with $110 plus cost for a barrel of oil. Keep in mind oil is used in so much more than simply transportation.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Triple Threat Tuesday.....The Big 3 Converge to Show Strength
Oil was down on the day to $136.04. Down $5.33pb.
Gold was down today to $923.30. Down today $5.50po.
Dow finished up today, to 11,384.21. Up 152.25 today.
Jamie Dimon on Charlie Rose discusses the Bear Stearns buyout. This is the full hour program with Rose interviewing Dimon.
The last hour today was pretty powerful for a bear market. It would be hard to describe that kind of exuberance while everyone is saying that the market won't move just because it is oversold.
Yet today held something you don't see very often. Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and Paulson talking on the same day. This triple barrel assault on bad news and negative outlook brought about a second glance at equities that we have not witnessed in a while.
Is this a temporary bottom? It sure closed with momentum that could last a day or two. If it is a temporary bottom, it could last to either 11700 on the Dow or possibly 12100.
If you think it is going to go that type of distance, you might want to check out the ETF, SSO. The IYR moved big today and will surely drop fast once this momentum leaves. Watch the fast food stocks as commodity prices continue to drop. This can boost their bottom line quick.
Keep an eye out for the Oil Report in the am. It could add to the downward momentum of the energy sector.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold was down today to $923.30. Down today $5.50po.
Dow finished up today, to 11,384.21. Up 152.25 today.
Jamie Dimon on Charlie Rose discusses the Bear Stearns buyout. This is the full hour program with Rose interviewing Dimon.
The last hour today was pretty powerful for a bear market. It would be hard to describe that kind of exuberance while everyone is saying that the market won't move just because it is oversold.
Yet today held something you don't see very often. Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and Paulson talking on the same day. This triple barrel assault on bad news and negative outlook brought about a second glance at equities that we have not witnessed in a while.
Is this a temporary bottom? It sure closed with momentum that could last a day or two. If it is a temporary bottom, it could last to either 11700 on the Dow or possibly 12100.
If you think it is going to go that type of distance, you might want to check out the ETF, SSO. The IYR moved big today and will surely drop fast once this momentum leaves. Watch the fast food stocks as commodity prices continue to drop. This can boost their bottom line quick.
Keep an eye out for the Oil Report in the am. It could add to the downward momentum of the energy sector.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Monday, July 7, 2008
Vix........25 and going higher!!!
Oil closed today at $141.37. Today oil was down $3.92
Gold closed today at $928.80. Down $4.80 Monday.
Dow closed today at 11,231.96. Down 56.58 in Mondays session.
Watch Peter Schiff talk here....the gold standard is a steep idea, but there are some good points. You cannot artificially prop up this country until everything is "free with interest" and there are "no payments until the last year of your life".
With oil currently breaking down, and commodity stocks and commodities feeling the pressure from the US Dollar, will we see the Vix capitulation that everyone talks about? Will we see Vix 35-40 with a big bang down day that will lead to a short term rally in this bull market?
I wish I could answer this question. I believe the best we can do is to be looking out for the potential signs that might point to us to a possible trend reversal.
The dollar has done a great job in the last 3 trading sessions. It is causing the inflationary trend to see a different direction in the commodity arena.
Tuesday and Thursday of this week we will hear Ben Bernanke speak and probably speak tough on the "stronger" dollar belief that he and Paulson commonly refer to but rarely act upon.
I expect that in one week, one month, or some undetermined amount of time, our government might have to drop rates one more time before they start to raise them.
There is no other way to prop the financials up after finding out how much more money they will need in an era of new government financial regulation.
So, as our government trys to assist the economy, it looks as if it is shooting itself in the foot based on the new information it is receiving due to the opening of the new Fed window for investment banks to finance their "not so good" secured debt.
Until all the doors and windows are open to all, there will not be any transparency.
The financials keep surprising us, and yet the market looks like it might be absorbing bad news in a better way. It feels as if it wants to bounce North a little, but cannot get a good floor to bounce from.
Lets keep our eyes out for that floor.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold closed today at $928.80. Down $4.80 Monday.
Dow closed today at 11,231.96. Down 56.58 in Mondays session.
Watch Peter Schiff talk here....the gold standard is a steep idea, but there are some good points. You cannot artificially prop up this country until everything is "free with interest" and there are "no payments until the last year of your life".
With oil currently breaking down, and commodity stocks and commodities feeling the pressure from the US Dollar, will we see the Vix capitulation that everyone talks about? Will we see Vix 35-40 with a big bang down day that will lead to a short term rally in this bull market?
I wish I could answer this question. I believe the best we can do is to be looking out for the potential signs that might point to us to a possible trend reversal.
The dollar has done a great job in the last 3 trading sessions. It is causing the inflationary trend to see a different direction in the commodity arena.
Tuesday and Thursday of this week we will hear Ben Bernanke speak and probably speak tough on the "stronger" dollar belief that he and Paulson commonly refer to but rarely act upon.
I expect that in one week, one month, or some undetermined amount of time, our government might have to drop rates one more time before they start to raise them.
There is no other way to prop the financials up after finding out how much more money they will need in an era of new government financial regulation.
So, as our government trys to assist the economy, it looks as if it is shooting itself in the foot based on the new information it is receiving due to the opening of the new Fed window for investment banks to finance their "not so good" secured debt.
Until all the doors and windows are open to all, there will not be any transparency.
The financials keep surprising us, and yet the market looks like it might be absorbing bad news in a better way. It feels as if it wants to bounce North a little, but cannot get a good floor to bounce from.
Lets keep our eyes out for that floor.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Calm Before the Storm...or Is It a Hurricane?
Oil(CLQ8) was up today to $145.37. Up $1.80pb.
Gold(GCQ8) was down today $11.50 to $935.00po
Dow was up today to 11,288.54. Up 73.03 today.
This is a great video talking about oil. 3-5 years could bring $500 per barrel oil Professor Hirsch says.
It looks like the storm might be changing for the short term at least. If you look at the UUP, you will see it has room on the upside to move over the next 5 to 15 days to 23. The UUP measures the value of the dollar. This equity index involves looking into the currency market, so it can be tricky. Trichet raised rates in the EU and possibly due to the influence of Paulson(US Treasury)made his rate hike sound as if it could be a "one and done" instead of a chain of rate hikes. Well, the market might have been expecting a series of rate hikes, and when they heard his guidance on the state of EU currency, the Market decided the Dollar was not going to take the beating it might have if the EU were to commit to a series of rate hikes.
This in turn is causing the commodities to break the pattern that they have been in.
They have been on a bull tear for over a year now and the world will need these commodities for years to come, but they look to be losing a little steam right now.
Ultimately though, until the Fed raises rates instead of simply talking about it, the US Dollar is cursed and oil and food will continue to rise to the occasion.
There are some great coal companies with high P/Es that are still available.
Our favorite is CNX(Consol Energy).
It was pretty interesting that that Dow closed below 11,300 today after being spending much of the session above that level. The news that came out today was anything but pretty, yet the market rose. This news might be digested over the weekend and we might see a tumble on Monday. Watch 2 elements to cause change either way.
One is Oil, hurricane or Middle East problems could send oil spiraling.
Two is the Dollar, if the Fed were to come out this weekend and pull a "Bear Stearns" out of their ear, it could have a positive impact on the dollar that would shift the Market into the an equity frenzy by crushing commodities.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold(GCQ8) was down today $11.50 to $935.00po
Dow was up today to 11,288.54. Up 73.03 today.
This is a great video talking about oil. 3-5 years could bring $500 per barrel oil Professor Hirsch says.
It looks like the storm might be changing for the short term at least. If you look at the UUP, you will see it has room on the upside to move over the next 5 to 15 days to 23. The UUP measures the value of the dollar. This equity index involves looking into the currency market, so it can be tricky. Trichet raised rates in the EU and possibly due to the influence of Paulson(US Treasury)made his rate hike sound as if it could be a "one and done" instead of a chain of rate hikes. Well, the market might have been expecting a series of rate hikes, and when they heard his guidance on the state of EU currency, the Market decided the Dollar was not going to take the beating it might have if the EU were to commit to a series of rate hikes.
This in turn is causing the commodities to break the pattern that they have been in.
They have been on a bull tear for over a year now and the world will need these commodities for years to come, but they look to be losing a little steam right now.
Ultimately though, until the Fed raises rates instead of simply talking about it, the US Dollar is cursed and oil and food will continue to rise to the occasion.
There are some great coal companies with high P/Es that are still available.
Our favorite is CNX(Consol Energy).
It was pretty interesting that that Dow closed below 11,300 today after being spending much of the session above that level. The news that came out today was anything but pretty, yet the market rose. This news might be digested over the weekend and we might see a tumble on Monday. Watch 2 elements to cause change either way.
One is Oil, hurricane or Middle East problems could send oil spiraling.
Two is the Dollar, if the Fed were to come out this weekend and pull a "Bear Stearns" out of their ear, it could have a positive impact on the dollar that would shift the Market into the an equity frenzy by crushing commodities.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Cramer Calls It a Rally........LOL
Oil(CLQ8) was up today to 141.74. Up 77 cents.
Gold (GCN8) closed today at $942.50, up $16.30.
Dow closed today @ 11,382.26, up 32.25.
Today was not a rally........they call it short covering!
The Auto industry lead the pack today.
http://tiny.cc/7G1yk
Oil is choking the Western World right now. Until oil breaks, Fannie Mae and housing comes back, do not count on the Equity Market coming back for the long term.
In the short term, keep an eye on oil and the VIX to hit 35-40and then look to go long in the short term.
Jobs and Unemployment come out tomorrow. Thursday is a half day. Oil at all time highs, and a 3.5 day weekend...are you leaving your positions open? I bet not.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Gold (GCN8) closed today at $942.50, up $16.30.
Dow closed today @ 11,382.26, up 32.25.
Today was not a rally........they call it short covering!
The Auto industry lead the pack today.
http://tiny.cc/7G1yk
Oil is choking the Western World right now. Until oil breaks, Fannie Mae and housing comes back, do not count on the Equity Market coming back for the long term.
In the short term, keep an eye on oil and the VIX to hit 35-40and then look to go long in the short term.
Jobs and Unemployment come out tomorrow. Thursday is a half day. Oil at all time highs, and a 3.5 day weekend...are you leaving your positions open? I bet not.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Monday, June 30, 2008
Mondays Market......Its Not Nap Time!
Oil was down 21cents to close at $140.00 even.
Gold was down $3.00 to $928.30.
Dow was up 3.5 points top 11,350.01.
Don't forget that this week only has 4 trading days.
Today was sluggish by any definition. Up over 85 points by 11:30EST, the Market started to tail off with one last attempt to pass 11400 between 2:15 and 3:30EST.
With the fact that trading will not be taking place on Friday due to the July 4th holiday, we could see (Wednesday probably do to news) some major movement, we believe to the downside. It could start downward on Tuesday and then pick up momentum on Wednesday.
That is if oil hangs tough around $140 per barrel. If it sells off for some reason we might see the Dow drift north without conviction like it did for the first few hours of today.
Stocks that we are into that did well today are GMCR,IPI,MER. But we look for more downside action from the IYR.
Inflation is still on and will not be assisted by unemployment later this week. Gold(GLD) should perform well until Bernanke steps in.
Look for the EU to raise rates this week, and crush the dollar further.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Gold was down $3.00 to $928.30.
Dow was up 3.5 points top 11,350.01.
Don't forget that this week only has 4 trading days.
Today was sluggish by any definition. Up over 85 points by 11:30EST, the Market started to tail off with one last attempt to pass 11400 between 2:15 and 3:30EST.
With the fact that trading will not be taking place on Friday due to the July 4th holiday, we could see (Wednesday probably do to news) some major movement, we believe to the downside. It could start downward on Tuesday and then pick up momentum on Wednesday.
That is if oil hangs tough around $140 per barrel. If it sells off for some reason we might see the Dow drift north without conviction like it did for the first few hours of today.
Stocks that we are into that did well today are GMCR,IPI,MER. But we look for more downside action from the IYR.
Inflation is still on and will not be assisted by unemployment later this week. Gold(GLD) should perform well until Bernanke steps in.
Look for the EU to raise rates this week, and crush the dollar further.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Friday, June 27, 2008
Lock In....Get Ready For Dow Ski Slope 10500
Dow down 106.91 points to 11346.51
Gold up to $931.3po. Up $16.20 today.
Oil(CLQ8) set a new record again today. The high was 142.99. It closed at 140.21,
up .57c.
http://tiny.cc/3s1YV
Look for the Dow to fall hard either Monday or Tuesday. Possibly another 300-400 day depending on earnings and other fundamentals that might come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Monday is a slow day for economic news, but look for the banks or the investment banks to issue some type of market moving news about capital raising. Possibly (MER)
Merrill.
Already the bond insurer MBIA is in trouble as their rating is at jeopardy with Moodys.
And late today the news broke that on CNBC that said "Moody's Investors Service warned it is likely to cut its credit ratings on Morgan Stanley, saying the U.S. investment bank has made expensive trading mishaps and it's unclear if it can improve its risk management."
That was right after the XLF hit a 52 week low and people were just starting to question the standing of JPM.
Below tells you why Gold is hot right now.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Gold up to $931.3po. Up $16.20 today.
Oil(CLQ8) set a new record again today. The high was 142.99. It closed at 140.21,
up .57c.
http://tiny.cc/3s1YV
Look for the Dow to fall hard either Monday or Tuesday. Possibly another 300-400 day depending on earnings and other fundamentals that might come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Monday is a slow day for economic news, but look for the banks or the investment banks to issue some type of market moving news about capital raising. Possibly (MER)
Merrill.
Already the bond insurer MBIA is in trouble as their rating is at jeopardy with Moodys.
And late today the news broke that on CNBC that said "Moody's Investors Service warned it is likely to cut its credit ratings on Morgan Stanley, saying the U.S. investment bank has made expensive trading mishaps and it's unclear if it can improve its risk management."
That was right after the XLF hit a 52 week low and people were just starting to question the standing of JPM.
Below tells you why Gold is hot right now.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Elevator Down to Basement -358 Dow
Dow was down today, 358.41 points to 11,453.42.
Oil(CL08Q) was up $5.09 to $139.64
Gold was up today, +32.80 (+3.72%) to $915.10.
Every sector was down today with the Financials right there on top of the losers.
We are headed south with BUD in the fight of their life, because the Belgians are coming on strong. This could be a fast dance to the finish.
With oil hitting a record high today, our economy is going to be constricted unless the Fed steps in with either a rate hike for interest rates or what they did in 2001 with currency intervention. The were on the market buying dollars. If they did it again, they would need to coordinate this action with other govs to make this really work. Their rhetoric worked 10 days ago, but the dollar was trending North when they shot it out. Now our Dollar once again is headed down.
We might bounce up on the open tomorrow and depending how high we bounce, it might be a selling opportunity in GMCR, QID, or SDS.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Oil(CL08Q) was up $5.09 to $139.64
Gold was up today, +32.80 (+3.72%) to $915.10.
Every sector was down today with the Financials right there on top of the losers.
We are headed south with BUD in the fight of their life, because the Belgians are coming on strong. This could be a fast dance to the finish.
With oil hitting a record high today, our economy is going to be constricted unless the Fed steps in with either a rate hike for interest rates or what they did in 2001 with currency intervention. The were on the market buying dollars. If they did it again, they would need to coordinate this action with other govs to make this really work. Their rhetoric worked 10 days ago, but the dollar was trending North when they shot it out. Now our Dollar once again is headed down.
We might bounce up on the open tomorrow and depending how high we bounce, it might be a selling opportunity in GMCR, QID, or SDS.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Buying Op for 3-6 Months
Oil (CLQ8)finished $2.57 down today to $134.52pb.
Dow finished at 11814.35. Up 6.92 points on the session.
Gold closed at 887.50, down $4.10 today.
http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto062520081552256842&referrer_id=yahoofinance
The Fed failed to raise rates today. This should lead to higher commodities/agriculture pricing and Monsanto just reported record numbers and watched their shares drop.
Less than teen spirit, this smells like a bargain.
The whole sector has been out performing for the last year and should continue to do so for the next 3-6 months.
The financials are just starting to deal with lawsuits brought on by the Subprime mess.
We should see them drop further also in the next 3-6 months along with commercial real estate the closer we get to a rise in interest rates.
GMCR is starting to look very weak today. The puts for the July 35 are still cheap, if you think we are going to see a quick slide in the next 3 weeks.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Dow finished at 11814.35. Up 6.92 points on the session.
Gold closed at 887.50, down $4.10 today.
http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto062520081552256842&referrer_id=yahoofinance
The Fed failed to raise rates today. This should lead to higher commodities/agriculture pricing and Monsanto just reported record numbers and watched their shares drop.
Less than teen spirit, this smells like a bargain.
The whole sector has been out performing for the last year and should continue to do so for the next 3-6 months.
The financials are just starting to deal with lawsuits brought on by the Subprime mess.
We should see them drop further also in the next 3-6 months along with commercial real estate the closer we get to a rise in interest rates.
GMCR is starting to look very weak today. The puts for the July 35 are still cheap, if you think we are going to see a quick slide in the next 3 weeks.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
No Change Down,,,,,,Some Change Down>>> 11500 Dow
This was interesting. Mccain views on alternative fuels, talked about on CNBC.
Investments for new technology to stop our dependency on foreign oil.
Tax Incentives on new tech and the consumer end is needed to change habits on the US.
The thing most likely to rally if there is no change tomorrow, could be the Financials.
If there is no change, inflation will continue grow, and you might see commodities rise and stocks go down.
http://www.forexfactory.com/
index.php?s=f748727ea35fd1342b270aaa5f87fdf4&tomorrow=1
IPI took some off some 6.86% after a great run from $49 to $76 in 3-4 weeks.
Keep an eye on GMCR...it looks like it is headed South.
I look for the whole market to break down over the next 1-2 weeks.
The IYR is falling to pieces right now and will probably see new lows in the area of $55 per share. Commercial Real Estate has another year to feel the real pain.
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chdet=1214340093250&chddm=1955&q=NYSE:IYR&
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com
Investments for new technology to stop our dependency on foreign oil.
Tax Incentives on new tech and the consumer end is needed to change habits on the US.
The thing most likely to rally if there is no change tomorrow, could be the Financials.
If there is no change, inflation will continue grow, and you might see commodities rise and stocks go down.
http://www.forexfactory.com/
index.php?s=f748727ea35fd1342b270aaa5f87fdf4&tomorrow=1
IPI took some off some 6.86% after a great run from $49 to $76 in 3-4 weeks.
Keep an eye on GMCR...it looks like it is headed South.
I look for the whole market to break down over the next 1-2 weeks.
The IYR is falling to pieces right now and will probably see new lows in the area of $55 per share. Commercial Real Estate has another year to feel the real pain.
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chdet=1214340093250&chddm=1955&q=NYSE:IYR&
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com
Monday, June 23, 2008
Calm Before The Storm-June23rd
Oil was up to $136.74/today +$1.38
Gold was down to $887.20/today -$16.50
Dow was down .33 to 11842.36 today
The Market is waiting for Bernanke to unveil his Fed Funds rate plan for the future.
I expect tomorrow to be semi quiet also.
BTW...the next time you think Saudi...think of wrong kind of oil, and not enough of it. Sour not Sweet Crude is what is produced in the Middle East. So, once again, it looks like in another dire circumstance, we are running short on bullets when it comes to market intervention and possible relief from the thumb of pricing pressures we have allowed ourselves to become subject to.
Merrill is trying to raise capital by selling assets. One of their assets for sale might be BlackRock. Right now they own part of BlackRock and have a Asset Management agreement with BlackRock. So if the sales does happen, the fallout should be interesting. This could also effect the overall rating of Merrill and its ability to raise future capital. BlackRock is supposed to be worth $12Billion.
Watch the catalyst------------
1. Oil- driving inflation and specifically higher commodity prices
2. September/October Foreclosures peak- taking the cash out of the pockets of homeowners on a nationwide basis.
3. Interest Rates- rising over the next year to fight inflation and prolong the agony in the housing market.
4. Jobs/Unemployment- heading for a bad relationship between the two, as we head into a possible new President with a less than stellar vision of how to spur new growth in a time of economic crisis.
I think we have a clear picture of what direction the Market is going and why. Not to say that we won't have times when light creeps through the window and sparks a bull rally.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Gold was down to $887.20/today -$16.50
Dow was down .33 to 11842.36 today
The Market is waiting for Bernanke to unveil his Fed Funds rate plan for the future.
I expect tomorrow to be semi quiet also.
BTW...the next time you think Saudi...think of wrong kind of oil, and not enough of it. Sour not Sweet Crude is what is produced in the Middle East. So, once again, it looks like in another dire circumstance, we are running short on bullets when it comes to market intervention and possible relief from the thumb of pricing pressures we have allowed ourselves to become subject to.
Merrill is trying to raise capital by selling assets. One of their assets for sale might be BlackRock. Right now they own part of BlackRock and have a Asset Management agreement with BlackRock. So if the sales does happen, the fallout should be interesting. This could also effect the overall rating of Merrill and its ability to raise future capital. BlackRock is supposed to be worth $12Billion.
Watch the catalyst------------
1. Oil- driving inflation and specifically higher commodity prices
2. September/October Foreclosures peak- taking the cash out of the pockets of homeowners on a nationwide basis.
3. Interest Rates- rising over the next year to fight inflation and prolong the agony in the housing market.
4. Jobs/Unemployment- heading for a bad relationship between the two, as we head into a possible new President with a less than stellar vision of how to spur new growth in a time of economic crisis.
I think we have a clear picture of what direction the Market is going and why. Not to say that we won't have times when light creeps through the window and sparks a bull rally.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Saudi Meeting Might Assist With Oil
There is a meeting this weekend between the Saudis and the government and business leaders.
The outcome of this meeting could lead to lower oil prices in the future. Along with the fact that the government of China decided to repeal subsidies for gas and diesel this week 15-18%, we can clearly see global governments recognizing the toll high oil is bringing to global commerce.
http://tiny.cc/iPshj
The outcome of this meeting could lead to lower oil prices in the future. Along with the fact that the government of China decided to repeal subsidies for gas and diesel this week 15-18%, we can clearly see global governments recognizing the toll high oil is bringing to global commerce.
http://tiny.cc/iPshj
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Until the Bernanke Showdown
Today:
Oil was up
Gold was up
Dollar was down
Dow was down 130+
Options expire on Friday, so keep an eye on oil possibly going up.
This is a good video on oil supply/demand.
Today we touched then bounced off of 12000 on the Dow. This was a test of the 3 month lows. There were people on CNBC speaking about 10500 on the Dow. That was the first time I heard anyone talk about any marker under 11000 on the Dow.
Thursday and Friday brings us some fundamentals from the
reports concerning the Unemployment Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
I think we could see 10750 in the coming months. We might bounce up to 12100 or 12300 on the way down, on news of a "write up" instead of a write down or some other unexpected good news in the financials or the equivalent.
IPI is still working but may pull back in the next day or two. This could create a buying opportunity for IPI.
Bernanke talks on the 24th. It looks as if there is no way of an interest rate hike.
Watch the GLD ETF if/when Bernanke does not raise the Fed Funds Rate.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Oil was up
Gold was up
Dollar was down
Dow was down 130+
Options expire on Friday, so keep an eye on oil possibly going up.
This is a good video on oil supply/demand.
Today we touched then bounced off of 12000 on the Dow. This was a test of the 3 month lows. There were people on CNBC speaking about 10500 on the Dow. That was the first time I heard anyone talk about any marker under 11000 on the Dow.
Thursday and Friday brings us some fundamentals from the
reports concerning the Unemployment Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
I think we could see 10750 in the coming months. We might bounce up to 12100 or 12300 on the way down, on news of a "write up" instead of a write down or some other unexpected good news in the financials or the equivalent.
IPI is still working but may pull back in the next day or two. This could create a buying opportunity for IPI.
Bernanke talks on the 24th. It looks as if there is no way of an interest rate hike.
Watch the GLD ETF if/when Bernanke does not raise the Fed Funds Rate.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Monday, June 16, 2008
Goldman Sachs Earnings Before The Bell--Sovereign Wealth
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080617.html
Morgan Stanley reports on Thursday.
Barclays is saying it might need to raise $8 Billion by selling stock to sovereign wealth funds. It seems as if these funds are the debt/equity dumping grounds of 2008.
I would like to see an estimate of how long our global financial models would be stuck in the mud if they were not able to sell their soul to sovereign wealth funds.
And while we are on the topic, why doesn't the government facing the largest social/financial crisis in the world, have a sovereign wealth fund?
The US is so short on meeting its obligations currently, this might be a way(outside of raising taxes) to shore up the balance sheet.
This should be a great week with fundamentals moving the Market.
It seems as if the markets want to move North, and therefore they might digest bad news in a "less than dire" manner.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Morgan Stanley reports on Thursday.
Barclays is saying it might need to raise $8 Billion by selling stock to sovereign wealth funds. It seems as if these funds are the debt/equity dumping grounds of 2008.
I would like to see an estimate of how long our global financial models would be stuck in the mud if they were not able to sell their soul to sovereign wealth funds.
And while we are on the topic, why doesn't the government facing the largest social/financial crisis in the world, have a sovereign wealth fund?
The US is so short on meeting its obligations currently, this might be a way(outside of raising taxes) to shore up the balance sheet.
This should be a great week with fundamentals moving the Market.
It seems as if the markets want to move North, and therefore they might digest bad news in a "less than dire" manner.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
CME Sees Gov Approval, LDK, IPI, and DRYS Rise
May the King Justice help the CME?
http://tiny.cc/70Fhz
The stock has been hammered the last 2 months, this might possibly give rise to an up ward trend. There is plenty of room to rise vs. earnings.
The charts are showing good stuff at IPI and LDK. Wait for the IPI pullback to buy though. Potash is supposed to see 200% gains in the next 2 years and they won't do that and leave IPI behind. Keep in mind they have all seen a nice run up currently.
LDK looks great and on target to hit our 55 target buy September, if oil doesn't go to 80 per barrel.
DRYS is bouncing but the technicals look like a head and shoulders pattern. So if you enter, consider a pure short term trade. 93 is solid resistance, and might be considered as an exit.
CNBC is talking about the FEDs possible or not so possible rate hike. The Saudis are talking about raising oil production by 500k barrels next month. Keeping in mind this is an election year and a potential increase of rates, could topple the market and that could be blamed on Republicans in the November election. So, Paulson and Bernanke are being labeled as "cheap talk" on Fast Money. I think this is what we were talking last week.
http://tiny.cc/70Fhz
The stock has been hammered the last 2 months, this might possibly give rise to an up ward trend. There is plenty of room to rise vs. earnings.
The charts are showing good stuff at IPI and LDK. Wait for the IPI pullback to buy though. Potash is supposed to see 200% gains in the next 2 years and they won't do that and leave IPI behind. Keep in mind they have all seen a nice run up currently.
LDK looks great and on target to hit our 55 target buy September, if oil doesn't go to 80 per barrel.
DRYS is bouncing but the technicals look like a head and shoulders pattern. So if you enter, consider a pure short term trade. 93 is solid resistance, and might be considered as an exit.
CNBC is talking about the FEDs possible or not so possible rate hike. The Saudis are talking about raising oil production by 500k barrels next month. Keeping in mind this is an election year and a potential increase of rates, could topple the market and that could be blamed on Republicans in the November election. So, Paulson and Bernanke are being labeled as "cheap talk" on Fast Money. I think this is what we were talking last week.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Blah-Hoogle Well Defined
http://tiny.cc/n1tq3
This link takes you to the NYTimes article on Jerry Yang, shareholders, and the starts to foreshadow the upcoming story that might unwind in favor of the shareholder.
This link takes you to the NYTimes article on Jerry Yang, shareholders, and the starts to foreshadow the upcoming story that might unwind in favor of the shareholder.
Friday, June 13, 2008
We were wrong--6 Trading Days of Potential Bull
We may not test 11700 just yet. If Lehman Brothers can pull off a sale or raise money to survive, they may lead the financials out of the woods at least until earnings show with either positive or negative effects. Lehman lead the financials higher today.
The street is fearing that Goldman may have something unexpected on earnings.
On the 24th Bernanke will speak. From the close today, we could have a short term bull run til the 24th.
What a finish today!
Up 165 points on the Dow.
Oil down about $2 per barrel, while Comex GOLD August closed $1.10 higher.
LDK announced a 5 year contract and bounced up 7.15% today.
IPI was very strong today also. This stock was up 3.72% today, and up in a huge way this week.
DRYS was down over $20(from $93 to $73) per share the last 7 trading days and had a
nice bounce today, up 3.38% today.
Barring any oil mishaps this weekend, such as a pending strike in Nigeria or a hurricane, equities could have a nice short term run and if Bernanke does the what the market wants, there is room for the Dow to move further up at this point.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Sell Side Friday
Kudlow is putting them to the test here.
Without the big run up this week and closing stronger on the last half hour of the trading session, it might be hard to believe that tomorrow(Friday) has the opportunity to take us closer to the 11700 lows on the Dow.
The CPI numbers come out 830am EST tomorrow. This could set the tone for the day and structure a sell off all by itself.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajgfmr4PRbxQ&refer=home
The game is on as the Dollar makes gains this week, while the Markets drive the idea that the Fed should not raise rates at this time. The cost of borrowing needs to stay cheap so the Market can have a proper rebound. One that is not structured by the government givings in the form of stimuli packages and corporate buy outs.
If the Fed raises the rate, we might see 11000 on the Dow from 2006.
It wasn't that long ago, but this trip seems like it is taking forever!
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